Welcome to part two of the goals your A-League men’s side has lost, looking at the remaining six clubs in the competition.
For the introduction and part one, check out this link.
For reference:
Expected goals (xG) is a measure by using past histories to rate the chance of a ball finding the back of the net from certain positions, measured from 0-1 (0%-100%). 0.5 means that 5 times out of 10 when taking that particular shot, a goal will be scored – penalties are rated at 0.76 xG.
Standard deviation is a statistical function, used to measure the amount of variation within a set of numbers. Low standard deviation indicates the values are close to the average or standard rate, while a higher standard deviation shows that scores differ from the standard rate.
Newcastle Jets:
xG: 36.0
Goals: 24
Standard deviation: 1.89
The striking statistic of Newcastle’s previous campaign isn’t their departure of goalscorers, but the underperformance of goals when compared to what was expected.
Scoring 12 goals less than expected is astonishing and points to the lack of finishing ability within the squad.
However, there has been a major revamp, with the front four now featuring foreigners Beka Mikeltadze, Oliver Boumal, Daniel Penha and Savvas Siatravanis.
This is without referencing Eli Babalj, Samuel Silvera, Valentino Yuel and Archie Goodwin – the latter two of which impressed last season.
Newcastle’s problem doesn’t seem to be their attacking lineup, but the players behind it, and how they plan to progress the ball up to their exciting front four.
Perth Glory:
xG: 32.7
Goals: 44
Standard deviation: 3.07
The opposite can be said for Perth Glory, who majorly overperformed their xG, by between 11-12 goals.
The significant absences of Chris Ikonomidis, Joel Chianese and Diego Castro prove problematic for Richard Garcia, but they did sign a former Liverpool striker over the summer…
Daniel Sturridge’s goalscoring output is hard to predict as so much relates towards his fitness, but the arrival of Adrian Sardinero will also help, while club captain Brandon O’Neill can certainly hit them from range.
Again, the conundrum for Perth comes in the form of progressing the ball to the deadly front 3.
Sydney FC:
xG: 54.3
Goals: 39
Standard deviation: 3.1
A monotonous pie chart from Sydney FC, with Alex Baumjohann representing the only scoring departure with his solitary penalty goal.
What’s more engaging is Sydney’s underperformance of goals when compared to xG; the arrival of Adam Le Fondre proves a tantalising prospect for the club, as he only scored four goals in a short campaign last season.
When partnering this with the signing of Max Burgess, who was contributing at a rate of 0.76 goals and assists per 90 for Western United, in 2019/20, his last proper season, you can only assume an increase in goals and a more level xG.
Wellington Phoenix:
xG: 44.0
Goals: 44
Standard deviation: 3.07
Wellington Phoenix suffered two big losses in the offseason, with Tomer Hemed and Ulises Davila moving to Wanderers and the Macarthur respectively.
Davila played a direct part in 31.82% of Wellington’s goals (including goals and assists) and will be sorely missed as the talisman of the side.
While Reno Piscopo may be able to replicate the similarities of Davila’s silky dribbling and creativity, he’s scored just four goals in 36 games in the past two seasons in the A-League men, and the reliance will be on Ben Waine, Gary Hooper and David Ball to supply the finishes this campaign.
Also, interestingly Wellington exactly equalled their xG with their goalscoring rate.
Western Sydney Wanderers:
xG: 47.2
Goals: 45
Standard deviation: 2.22
It’s another rebuilding season for the Wanderers, with 64.44% of their goals leaving in the offseason.
Captain Mitch Duke is a loss, as is Bruce Kamau, who put an end product to his beautiful, mazy dribbles.
The focus for the Wanderers last season was more defensive than offensive, and Carl Robinson has changed the system in order to combat that.
However, with the likes of Ramy Najjarine, Tomer Hemed, Terry Antonis, Dimitri Petratos and Keijiro Ogawa coming into the side, expect to hopefully see another entertaining WSW in the attacking half of the field.
Western United:
xG 33.2
Goals: 30
Standard deviation: 1.67
Another side going through somewhat of a rebuild, Western United have switched managers for the first time in their short history, bringing in John Aloisi in place of Mark Rudan.
With Alessandro Diamanti steering the attacking ship, the Victorian side has gone for pace in wide areas in Lachlan Wales, Dylan Pierias and Connor Pain and a tall striker; new signing Aleksandar Prijovic sits at 1.91 metres tall.
With Dylan Wenzel-Halls as a wildcard off the bench, Aloisi has created a system to Diamanti’s strengths – well placed through balls onto the flanks from deeper areas, and lots of crosses in the final third.
Image source: Wellington Phoenix
