Analysing Argentina and Australia’s Group Stage Performances
Following a momentous effort to qualify from Group D with six points, Australia comes up against an Argentina side eager to win the tournament for the first time since 1986, and one that is acutely aware that it is likely to be Lionel Messi’s final shot at it.
This comes for both teams after they each secured two wins from two following a loss in the opening matchup, with Australia being blown out 4-1 by France despite an early lead, and Argentina had a surprise loss 2-1 against Saudi Arabia also despite having an early lead.
Interestingly enough, both games make up two of just four changes in the lead during a match that has occurred at the time of writing throughout the entire group stages thus far. This figure will make for key notice for each side, as this world cup has demonstrated that what may be one of the key factors to winning a game, is being the first to score.
To score first has resulted in a remarkable 90% ratio of teams going on to score so far in this World Cup and could prove to be pivotal in Sunday’s Round of 16 clash. So, will prioritising defence be the best choice, or trying to pick an early goal?
Looking at the above chart, the most obvious features rest in Argentina’s goals for, and expected goals (xG) for. With Argentina scoring five goals in three games from an expected 6.27 xG there’s a clear demonstration that Australia are coming against a side that is excellent at creating goal-scoring opportunities, and regularly score from them as well.
This is a clear contrast to Australia, who registered three goals from an xG of 1.72, suggesting an inability to create clear-cut chances but a strong ability from attackers to latch onto half-chances to get a goal.
In the defensive end of the field, Argentina has conceded twice from an xG of just 0.74, whereas Australia has conceded four times from an xG of 5.8. From this end, Argentina is demonstrating that while they can stifle chances being created, they remain vulnerable to unexpected shots, a key point that plays into how Australia have performed thus far.
Regarding how each sides have performed, it seems that the most likely occurrence is no change of gameplan from Australia. With Australia registering just an average 37% possession across their three games to Argentina’s 67%, it would likely be expected for them to maintain their ability to defend as a cohesive unit.
What is impressive is Australia has registered 50 shots against within their group-stage matches, however, just 28% of these have been on target, meaning Australia has successfully stifled quality shots, and goalkeeper Mathew Ryan has been reliable when called upon to make a save.
In contrast, Argentina has had just 11 shots against them with 27.27% of these being on target. With fewer shots, Argentina is highly organised to shut down opposition attackers and prevent them from getting shots, and quality shots, on goal.
In terms of their shooting, Argentina registers a better ratio than Australia with just under half of their shots being on target from a total of 43. Whereas Australia has a third of their shots on target from 21 shots total.
It all compiles into a narrative all too familiar for Australia in World Cups. Quality opponents, eager to keep possession and attack with intensity, able to defend effectively and dominate the ball, against an Australia who isn’t an attacking force to be reckoned with, nor defensively phenomenal, and struggling to dictate play. On paper, a David verse Goliath.
However, this is exactly the scenario that faced Saudi Arabia when they opened their World Cup campaign with a win against Argentina. Saudi Arabia had a strict game plan defensively, with a high-defensive line that coordinated to reduce the effectiveness of an Argentina attack boasting some of the biggest names in football.
Argentina’s only defeat of the tournament so far has come against a side lacking the “star power” of many of Europe and the America’s sides boast, coming against a team that worked far more than just the sum of its parts.
Along this train, Argentina has had three goalscorers from five goals, whereas Australia has had a different goalscorer every time. For Australia the targets are simple, Messi, Martinez, Di Maria, stifle the ability of Alexis Mac Allister. Australia boasts a wide array of players capable of scoring which increases the fluidity with which they can create, attack, and score from, with no sole point being the target for attacks.
For Australia to win will require them to emulate their superb defensive displays from both Denmark and Tunisia, and they may have found their key at right back following Milos Degenek’s superb showing against the Danes.
So that’s the key for Australia. Don’t change a thing, key breakaways, unlikely shots that have proven to be able to beat the Argentine defence, and defensive rigidity. Australia has looked best in this tournament in spurts of high pressing with clear traps, but otherwise in weathering attacks until an opportunity presents itself.
“The Australian Spirit” is what Arnold referred to. This Australia side has demonstrated a deep-seated desire to win every ball, and make every tackle. That spirit and desire will be key to keeping focused for 90 or more minutes, and the rigid defensive structure we’ve seen permeate through the squad thus far in the tournament could prove to be the backbone to a momentous occasion.
For the fans, if Australia score first, the statistics of this world cup show promise.
Photo by Claudio Villa/Getty Images
